Ralph Byer is a Plantation, Florida-based managing director and wealth management advisor with more than four decades of leadership experience at a major financial institution. As head of the Byer Wealth Management Group, he provides families and businesses with customizable financial services related to retirement income, estate planning, philanthropy, risk management, tax minimization, and long-term care considerations. Ralph Byer’s professional focus on long-term planning and risk mitigation provides a practical context for topics involving large-scale environmental and economic uncertainty, including the potential effects of a super El Nino. His background includes undergraduate study in psychology at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and a master of arts in gerontology and social and behavioral science from the University of South Florida. He is also involved in charitable causes and community organizations.
Super El Nino and Its Broader Planning Implications
One of the key stories in marine climate science for 2026 centers on the reemergence of El Nino, the warmer phase of a multi-year natural climate pattern. First identified by fishermen off the South American coast in the 17th century, El Nino was traditionally associated with unusually warm waters across the Pacific Ocean, around Christmas. This gave it its Spanish name, “little boy,” or “Christ Child.” The cool surface-water phase of the El Nino Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) is known as La Nina.
In addition to coastal surface-water temperature shifts, El Nino is associated with intense, irregular changes in climate. This reflects the fact that the Southern Oscillation actually involves an air pressure shift across the Pacific Ocean’s tropical regions. As coastal waters warm across the eastern tropical Pacific, warm air rises and circulates, affecting weather patterns in the Atlantic as well. Such sea-surface temperature deviations are measured by the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI).
When the ONI registers temperature increases exceeding 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (F) across five successive three month periods, scientists consider an El Nino event to have officially begun. Intensities vary widely: in cases of weak temperature increases, in the four to five degree range, the effect is localized. In upper extremes, with a 14 to 18 F degree increase, climatic changes take place on a global scale.
Average water temperatures in the North Pacific warmed nearly a full degree in five days, from May 31 to June 5. This led the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center to predict an El Nino taking form in June 2026. Computer models indicate it’s likely water temperatures will increase by five degrees by year-end. This represents a record temperature, almost three degrees above the 30-year El Nino normal.
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that the developing El Nino will emerge as the strongest ever recorded, with a 5.4 F temperature increase predicted and 7.2 F possible. This would make the “super El Nino” event significantly stronger than other historically strong events, such as 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. In total, there have been four super El Ninos since 1950. The last El Nino lasted from June 2023 to April 2024. This contributed to 2024 being the first year to exceed the critical 2.7 F warming threshold set in the Paris Agreement.
The terrestrial effects of El Nino include the northern third of the US experiencing drier-than-average weather, with above-normal precipitation felt across the southern states. From the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest, winter temperatures are likely to be above average. Parts of the West, such as the Colorado Basin, that have experienced drought may receive welcome rainfall.
When it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, air rising above the tropical Pacific causes strong upper-level wind shear, which leads to air sinking in the tropical Atlantic. The effect is one of damping hurricane formation in the Atlantic. This is borne out in NOAA’s May 21 official outlook, which predicts between eight and 14 named storms across 2026, with up to a half dozen hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes (rated Category three and higher). This number is significantly lower than recent averages when it comes to the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. However, storm intensity and frequency often increase in tropical regions of the Pacific as a result of El Nino.
About Ralph Byer
Ralph Byer is a Plantation, Florida-based wealth management advisor and managing director with Merrill Lynch. He leads the Byer Wealth Management Group, which provides families and businesses with planning support involving retirement income, philanthropy, estate planning, risk management, tax minimization, and long-term care considerations. He studied at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and the University of South Florida. His community involvement includes support for charitable and local organizations.